Honeybees, along with a few other key animals, are critical to human existence on our planet. Along with honey production, these insects provide the vital role of pollination of many trees and plants that provide food for our survival. In 2007, the term Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) was created to describe the decline of honeybee populations around the world. Bee decline can be attributed to factors such as viruses, pesticides, predators, habitat destruction, and environmental conditions.
Some information to consider (but you may find other helpful information online):
· Honeybees can travel up to 20 km, but typically stay within 6 km of their hive.
· A typical honeybee hive contains between 20,000 and 80,000 honeybees.
· A single honeybee can visit approximately 2,000 flowers or more in a single day.
· Because of the high workload during summertime, most honeybees work themselves to death, resulting in a shorter lifespan.
· During autumn and wintertime, honeybees may live a bit longer (four to six months).
· A honeybee’s level of activity, pollen consumption, and protein abundance impacts its lifespan.
Requirements
1. Develop a model to determine the population of a honeybee colony over time.
2. Conduct sensitivity analysis on your model to determine which factors (e.g., lifespans, egg laying rates, fertilized/unfertilized egg ratios, or other factors) have the greatest impact on honeybee colony size.
3. Model and predict how many honeybee hives you will need to support pollination of a 20-acre
(81,000 square meters) parcel of land containing crops that benefit from pollination.
4. Create a non-technical, one-page blog or infographic for a website that provides the information you developed.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
· One-page Summary Sheet.
· Table of Contents.
· Your complete solution.
· One-page blog or infographic.
· References list.
Note: The HiMCM Contest has a 25-page limit to your PDF solution submission. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25-page limit (Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Reference List, and any Appendices).
Problem B: CO2 and Global Warming
Prior to the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was consistently around 280 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 377.7 ppm in March of 2004, resulting in the largest 10-year average increase up to that time. According to scientists from National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) the monthly mean CO2 concentration level peaked at 421 ppm in May 2022. An Organisation for Economic Co-Operations and Development (OECD) report predicts a CO2 level of 685 ppm by 2050.
The editors of Scientific Today magazine have asked your team to address these claims of the current reported and future predictions of CO2 concentration levels. They provided two data sets (CO2 Data Set 1 & Temps Data Set 2) to assist in your research.
Requirements
1. Do you agree with CO2 level claims? Use CO2 Data Set 1 to analyze CO2 changes.
a. Do you agree that the March 2004 increase of CO2 resulted in a larger increase than observed over any previous 10-year period? Why or why not?
b. Fit various (more than one) mathematical models to the data to describe past, and predict future, concentration levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
c. Use each of your models to predict the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in the year 2100. Do any of your models agree with claims and predictions that the CO2 concentration level will reach 685 ppm by 2050? If not by 2050, when do your models predict the concentration of CO2 reaching 685 ppm?
d. Which model do you consider most accurate? Why?
2. What’s the relationship between temperature and CO2? Many scientists think that there is a relationship between warming global temperatures and the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Use your work in part 1 and Temps Data Set 2 to assist in your comparison of land-ocean temperatures and CO2 concentration levels.
a. Build a model to predict future land-ocean temperatures changes. When does your model predict the average land-ocean temperature will change by 1.25°C, 1.50°C, and 2°C compared to the base period of 1951-1980?
b. Build a model to analyze the relationship (if any) between CO2 concentrations and landocean temperatures since 1959. Explain the relationship or justify that there is no relationship.
c. Extend your model from part 2.b. into the future. How far into the future is your model reliable? What concerns, if any, do you have with your model’s ability to predict future CO2 concentration levels and/or land-ocean temperatures?
3. Prepare a non-technical article
(1 page maximum) for Scientific Today to explain in your team’s findings and possible recommendations for the future.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
· One-page Summary Sheet.
· Table of Contents.
· Your complete solution.
· One-page blog or infographic.
· References list.
Note: The HiMCM Contest has a 25-page limit to your PDF solution submission. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25-page limit (Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Reference List, and any Appendices).
